Vol. 6 No. 2 (2022)

Bending the Curve by 2030: On the Path to a Population Safe Harbour

Christopher Tucker
American Geographical Society

Published 2022-08-07


  • population,
  • population restoration,
  • 1.5 TFR by 2030,
  • climate restoration,
  • empowering women and girls

How to Cite

Tucker, Christopher. 2022. “Bending the Curve by 2030: On the Path to a Population Safe Harbour”. The Journal of Population and Sustainability 6 (2):51-61. https://doi.org/10.3197/JPS.63788304908977.


Half the global population has birth rates below replacement and several advanced nations already have birth rates half that. There is no question that restoring a sustainable population via low birth rates is feasible. There is even a scientific consensus around the non-coercive, empowering strategies focused on women and girls that could expedite the inevitable process of bending the global population curve. The question is simply the level of investment required to make it happen. As such, this article explores the ‘art of the possible’, walking us through how we could approach a safe harbour population of three billion soon after 2100 – a new lower population plateau that would enable humanity to pay down the massive ecological debt it has accrued over recent centuries.


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